{"id":9258,"date":"2022-06-21T10:41:55","date_gmt":"2022-06-21T08:41:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cashlab.fr\/?p=9258"},"modified":"2024-03-20T16:14:35","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T15:14:35","slug":"comprendre-le-risque-de-stagflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cashlab.fr\/en\/comprendre-le-risque-de-stagflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Stagflation risk: what are the consequences for companies?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00a0\u00bb1″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.18.0″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb width_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb width_phone=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb width_last_edited=\u00a0\u00bbon|phone\u00a0\u00bb max_width=\u00a0\u00bb1400px\u00a0\u00bb module_alignment=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb8px|||||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.17.3″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb max_width=\u00a0\u00bb1400px\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb40px|40px|40px|40px|true|true\u00a0\u00bb border_radii=\u00a0\u00bbon|5px|5px|5px|5px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_style=\u00a0\u00bbpreset3″ global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_code _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.18.0″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]Accueil<\/a><\/span><\/span>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.17.4″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb text_text_color=\u00a0\u00bb#191735″ text_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb16px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_align=\u00a0\u00bbleft\u00a0\u00bb header_3_font=\u00a0\u00bbOpen Sans|600|||||||\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_align=\u00a0\u00bbleft\u00a0\u00bb header_3_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb20px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_line_height=\u00a0\u00bb1.2em\u00a0\u00bb header_4_font=\u00a0\u00bbOpen Sans||||on||||\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_align=\u00a0\u00bbleft\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_color=\u00a0\u00bb#191735″ header_4_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb16px\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bbRGBA(255,255,255,0)\u00a0\u00bb width_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0\u00bb width_phone=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb width_last_edited=\u00a0\u00bbon|phone\u00a0\u00bb module_alignment=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022, le mot stagflation est sur toutes les l\u00e8vres. Il laisserait m\u00eame pr\u00e9sager un climat d\u2019incertitude chez les directions financi\u00e8res. Pourquoi ?<\/strong>
Dans cet article, nous allons d\u00e9crypter le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de stagflation et ses cons\u00e9quences pour les entreprises fran\u00e7aises. <\/strong><\/p>\n

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Le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de stagflation<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Avant toute chose, il est n\u00e9cessaire de d\u00e9finir le terme stagflation pour mieux comprendre les tenants et aboutissants de ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne.<\/div>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/div>\n

D\u00e9finition<\/h3>\n
Qu\u2019est-ce que la stagflation ? Contraction de \u00ab stagnation \u00bb et \u00ab inflation \u00bb, ce terme est apparu dans les ann\u00e9es 70. Il d\u00e9signe une situation caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par la stagnation de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, accompagn\u00e9e d\u2019une inflation.<\/div>\n
En d\u2019autres termes, la stagnation correspond \u00e0 une croissance \u00e9conomique faible, voire nulle. Quant \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, elle se traduit par l\u2019augmentation durable des prix, et ainsi, la perte du pouvoir d\u2019achat.<\/div>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0<\/div>\n

Mise en contexte<\/h3>\n
\n

La question qui fait d\u00e9bat : sommes-nous dans une p\u00e9riode de stagflation ? Avant de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question, nous allons retracer le contexte si particulier de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Apr\u00e8s deux ann\u00e9es de crise, nous subissons toujours les cons\u00e9quences de la pand\u00e9mie mondiale.<\/strong> Entre les confinements, les rallongements des d\u00e9lais de paiements et de livraisons, les endettements aupr\u00e8s de l\u2019Etat\u2026 Les entreprises ont connu de nombreuses difficult\u00e9s qui sont, pour certaines, toujours d\u2019actualit\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 cela s\u2019ajoute la guerre en Ukraine, cause de l\u2019incertitude qui plane sur l\u2019Europe depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. L\u2019envol\u00e9e du prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, mais aussi des denr\u00e9es alimentaires en sont les cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9sastreuses. Si vous souhaitez creuser le sujet, on en parle juste ici<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Quelles cons\u00e9quences pour les entreprises ?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Nous avons d\u00e9fini le terme de stagflation et \u00e9tabli le contexte dans lequel il est utilis\u00e9. Mais quelle est la situation \u00e9conomique actuelle de la France ? Pouvons-nous parler de stagflation ?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Les chiffres en 2022<\/h3>\n

En mai, l\u2019INSEE annon\u00e7ait une augmentation des prix \u00e0 la consommation de 0,7% sur un mois, et de 5,2% sur un an<\/a>. Soit une hausse significative qui se fait de plus en plus ressentir, particuli\u00e8rement dans les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des denr\u00e9es alimentaires.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Alors que les prix s\u2019envolent, la croissance \u00e9conomique en France \u00e9tait de 0% au premier trimestre 2022.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pour le deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, l\u2019INSEE et la Banque de France pr\u00e9voient une croissance de 0,2 \u00e0 0,25% en France. Si le statu quo perdure, le risque de stagflation pourrait se concr\u00e9tiser. Et ce, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale.<\/p>\n

En t\u00e9moignent les r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse des pr\u00e9visions de croissance mondiale pour 2022 de la Banque mondiale. Dans son dernier rapport datant du 7 juin, l\u2019institut a annonc\u00e9 la baisse de 1,2 point de pourcentage de la croissance mondiale en 2022, atteignant 2,9%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

David Malpass, Pr\u00e9sident de la Banque mondiale explique que \u00ab M\u00eame si une r\u00e9cession mondiale est \u00e9vit\u00e9e, les affres de la stagflation pourraient persister pendant plusieurs ann\u00e9es \u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u2192 Il va donc falloir suivre de pr\u00e8s ces chiffres dans les prochains mois.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Une vigilance accrue des directions financi\u00e8res<\/h3>\n

Comment les entreprises peuvent-elles faire face \u00e0 cette situation ?<\/p>\n

Avec la hausse du prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, les entreprises voient leurs co\u00fbts de production grimper, les obligeant \u00e0 augmenter leurs prix. Les directions financi\u00e8res vont ainsi devoir jouer un r\u00f4le strat\u00e9gique dans ce contexte tendu. Elles vont devoir \u00eatre encore plus vigilantes dans le pilotage de leur tr\u00e9sorerie<\/a>. Ce qui inclut une meilleure pr\u00e9vision et suivi de tr\u00e9sorerie pour mieux anticiper les pertes de Cash.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pour cela, les financiers vont devoir se faire aider d\u2019outils pour automatiser le pilotage de leur tr\u00e9sorerie. Cashlab propose un logiciel de gestion de tr\u00e9sorerie complet pour r\u00e9pondre aux besoins des entreprises. Pour en savoir plus, consultez notre site<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n

M\u00eame si aujourd\u2019hui la situation est pr\u00e9occupante, il est encore trop t\u00f4t pour parler de stagflation. Lors de l\u2019apparition de ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dans les ann\u00e9es 1970, la situation \u00e9tait bien diff\u00e9rente.<\/p>\n

\n

David Malpass le confirme, \u00ab Si la situation actuelle pr\u00e9sente des similitudes avec celle de l\u2019\u00e9poque, elle offre aussi des diff\u00e9rences importantes, parmi lesquelles la vigueur du dollar am\u00e9ricain et des prix p\u00e9troliers relativement plus faibles, ainsi que des bilans globalement plus solides des grandes institutions financi\u00e8res \u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

En attendant de voir la direction que prendra cette situation, les financiers doivent faire preuve de vigilance dans la gestion de leur Cash.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Article r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par El\u00e9onore Berne, le 21\/06\/2022.<\/p>\n

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Between inflation and weak economic growth, the current context seems to lean towards an economic slowdown. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[132,70,163,133,177,10],"class_list":["post-9258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","tag-cash-forecast","tag-financement","tag-gestion-de-tresorerie","tag-pilotage-du-cash","tag-stagflation","tag-tresorerie"],"yoast_head":"\nComprendre le risque de stagflation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Entre inflation et faible croissance \u00e9conomique, le contexte actuel semble pencher vers un ralentissement \u00e9conomique.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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